World War III?

World War III?

By: Trevor Cartwright

	I have heard it said that World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones. The implication is that World War III will be be fought with such terribly destructive weapons that the few survivors will essentially be catapulted back to the stone age. Due to the current conflict in Syria, many are worried that World War III is “crouching at the door.” Is it true? Is World War III an imminent outcome of the Syrian conflict?
	It is imperative that we briefly examine the relevant history. A civil war has been raging in Syria since mid-2011. The Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party (Syria Region) is the current government. Bashar al-Assad is the president of this controversial regime. Military defectors and armed citizens are unhappy with Assad. They want him to resign, and they want to rebuild the Syrian government from the ground up.To accomplish this, they have been staging conflicts all over Syria. Assad and his government troops have been waging war with rebels in order to maintain control. The Syrian government has been accused of resorting to chemical warfare (Dann, 2013).  According to UN estimates, the Syrian civil war has produced at least 120,000 deaths (anonymous, 2013).
	At this point, I feel compelled to interject before moving forward. Of course chemical weapons are unpleasant. The Syrian government has allegedly killed somewhere from several hundred to one thousand people with rockets loaded with Sarin gas (Dann, 2013). As terrible as chemical warfare is, it is interesting that it takes a “chemical weapon” to get the attention of the UN and the rest of the world. Had the Syrian government simply used basic explosives or bullets to kill the rebels, then the world would probably not even be interested in the Syrian conflict. Why is that? Furthermore, opposing nations are disgusted by how inhumane chemical weapons are, but what about the the deplorable actions of the Syrian rebels? They have committed atrocious acts that are far worse. They hacked up a little girl while she was still alive (Snyder, 2013), ate organs out of a recently killed man (Wood, 2013), stripped the shirts off of seven syrian soldiers, disgraced them and ritualistically executed them on film (Chivers, 2013), slashed a man's throat on film (Anonymous, 2013), threw the bodies of postal workers out of a window on film (anonymous, 2013), etc. One could argue that these were isolated acts, but there seems to be a sense of solidarity among the rebels; I have not heard any protests from these their fellow rebels. It seems that both sides are guilty of violating human rights and “humane killing”-whatever that is.
	Anyways, let's get back to the World War III topic. Here is where it gets interesting: the Syrian government is loosely allied with Russia, China, and Iran (Yan, 2013), while the rebels are loosely allied with the US, Britain, and France (McPartland, 2013). Due to the horrific crimes just mentioned and the involvement of world powers, many fear that the Syrian conflict is going to spark WWIII in the same way that the volatile early twentieth century Balkans -the “powder keg” of Europe- sparked WWI in 1914. Austria-Hungary had ties with major powers like Germany and the Ottoman Empire, while Serbia had ties with major powers like Britain and Russia. After the Bosnian Serb assassinated the archduke, all of these nations went to war in WWI. Is this a template for the current Syrian situation?
	While I certainly sympathize with that view, I do not think that the prospect of WWIII occurring right now is feasible because of two important reasons: the Eastern powers lack the resources and impetus to engage the West in war. In terms of resources, Russia, China, and Iran are not poor countries, but they certainly lack the firepower to fight the conglomerate of western nations that are united against them. All of these nations have potential to become world powers, but they are simply not there yet. That is not to say that they are weak-especially China. For example, China currently has 2.3 million troops- with almost a million reserve troops (anonymous, 2012). Regardless, China's economy is so intertwined with the U.S.'s economy (thanks to President Nixon's Open Door Policy) that a war with the U.S. would immensely damage their economy. Russia is still recovering from its failed attempt at implementing Communism, and Iran lacks solidarity, manpower, and war technology to pose a significant threat (although they may pose a nuclear threat in the future). It seems unlikely that China or any of the other Eastern nations are ready to launch an attack against the West. Is there a driving impetus to fight the West though?
	The answer appears to be a “maybe.” China has only expressed minimal interest in Assad; they seem more concerned about other nations meddling in Syria's internal affairs. Iran is definitely on board with the Syrian government. As Krishnadev Calamur put it, Syria provides Iran with access to the Mediterranean, they are business partners, they are both Shiite nations, and they have been close allies since the 1970's (2013). As such, Iranians have already started fighting alongside the Syrian government. Russia is probably the most powerful Syrian ally. Putin, the president of Russia, has expressed disdain for chemical warfare, but he has also expressed disdain for America's meddling in other nations' business. Putin once said that America uses fake humanitarian motives to manipulate other countries (Crowley, 2013). He is worried that America (and the other Western powers) is using chemical warfare as an excuse to accomplish one true goal: regime change. It seems then that all three nations dislike Western intervention, but, with the exception of Iran, none of their significant personal interests are at stake. It would take serious concern to instigate China or Russia into declaring war. Finally, if Iran and Syria fought against the western world, they would not stand a chance. They need help from major world powers.
	To conclude, it seems that World War III is not “crouching at the door.” However, the Syrian crisis, in my opinion, will contribute to the impending world war; perhaps this conflict has already set the stage for it. It seems probable that World War III will be a conflict between East and West since western nations keep meddling in Middle Eastern affairs for so-called “humanitarian” reasons while the true motive, as Putin mentioned, always seems to be regime change. If this assertion seems farfetched, then I encourage you to research U.S. Involvement in Cuba, Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nicarauga, South Vietnam, Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, and several other nations (anonymous, n.d.). Honestly, our CIA seems to be the culprit in just about everything bad that happens in this world. Putin and other Eastern leaders seem worried about a US and maybe even Western takeover of Eurasia. Anyways, it seems likely that a future conflict involving US intervention in a Eurasian conflict is eventually going to anger a powerful Eastern nation, and that nation will ally it self with other -probably eastern- nations, and they will collectively wage war on the West. Then, should Jesus tarry, World War III will begin.


Bibliography

Calamur, Krishnadev. "Who Are Syria's Friends And Why Are They Supporting Assad?"  NPR. NPR, 28 Aug. 2013. Web. 30 Sept. 2013. <http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2013/08/28/216385513/who-are-syrias-friends-and-why-are-they-supporting-assad>.

Covert United States foreign regime change actions - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. (n.d.).  Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Retrieved September 30, 2013, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covert_United_States_foreign_regime_change_actions#Syria_1949

Crowley, M. (2013, September 13). Why Vladimir Putin Thinks We’re Out to Get Him | TIME.com.  Swampland | Political insight from the Beltway and beyond | TIME.com. Retrieved September 30, 2013, from http://swampland.time.com/2013/09/13/why-vladimir-putin-thinks-were-out-to-get-him/

Dann, C. (2013, September 17). UN report confirms chemical weapons use in Syria - World News. World News. Retrieved September 30, 2013, from http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/09/16/20524937-un-report-confirms-chemical-weapons-use-in-syria?lite

McPartland, B. (2013, September 16). France, UK and US to up support for Syrian rebels - The Local.  The Local - France's News in English. Retrieved September 30, 2013, from http://www.thelocal.fr/20130916/france-uk-and-us-vow-to-up-support-for-syria-rebels

Military Strength of China. (2013, October 29).  Global Firepower. Retrieved September 30, 2013, from http://globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=China

Snyder, M. (2013, September 10). Precious Little Girl Dismembered While She Is Still Alive By Obama’s Psychotic Syrian Rebels.  Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!. Retrieved September 30, 2013, from http://www.infowars.com/precious-little-girl-dismembered-while-she-is-still-alive-by-obamas-psychotic-syrian-rebels/

South East. (2013, September 25). France urges action on Syria, says 120,000 dead - Finance News - London South East.  London South East. Retrieved September 30, 2013, from http://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?code=loegkpgo&headline=France_urges_action_on_Syria_says_120000_dead

Wood, P. (2013, July 5). BBC News - Face-to-face with Abu Sakkar, Syria's 'heart-eating cannibal' .  BBC - Homepage. Retrieved September 30, 2013, from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23190533

Yan, H. (2013, September 29). Syria allies: Why Russia, Iran and China are standing by the regime.  CNN.com. Retrieved September 30, 2013, from www.cnn.com/2013/08/29/world/meast/syria-iran-china-russia-supporters/index.html



NICK'S THOUGHTS
	World War III is imminent. There is always many reasons for a bomb to go off. The amount of gunpowder, the certain chemicals used, the intention of the bomber. This is seen in the Syrian war tension. The bomb is filled with powder. Only a couple more events that affect many on a national scale will set it off. WWIII is not exactly about to begin, but it is on its way. The results of the actions of those who involved themselves in the Syrian War affair will later lash back at them with political dilemmas and possible war. The possibility for a WWIII was increased due to involvement.
	America, Russia, Iran, China, and the UK were all involved in the chemical attack loosely with their allegiances. These allegiances will be the equivalent to chains later on. They will drag any country who is still involved into the inferno. The best action would to be uninvolved in the conflict. America needs to leave Syria to itself. No involvement in the matter UNLESS it spreads into a neighboring country America has allegiances with. The most crucial action America can take currently is to let the war play out, hoping that it does not spread. Hopefully, if done correctly, WWIII can be postponed for a longer period of time.

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